OBLIGATORY OSCAR POST

I know they're meaningless, I'm aware that they have little to do with actual merit and that frequently the most deserving not only don't win but are often not even nominated. Still, I watch the Academy Awards every year. I try not to miss them. The fact is, they are the only time of the year that a major network turns over 3 1/2 to 4 hours of prime air time to focus the eyes of the world on the art of cinema. I don't care about red carpets or who the actresses are wearing, and I'm only marginally interested in the door prizes themselves but at least it's a celebration, as shallow and abrasive as it can be, of the movies and the people who make them.

I've been thinking all week about how I would organize this post and I've decided to be pretty loose about it. There's no way I'm going to go through every category and besides, there are only four in which I've seen every nominee. Those would be supporting actor, director, adapted screenplay and best picture. I'll give my predictions and picks for the major nominees, spend some time discussing the best picture contenders and then maybe add a few things I hope will happen tonight. So, okay then. The Nominees are:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

127 Hours - Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy

The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin

Toy Story 3 - Michael Arndt (screenplay); Joh Lasseter, Andrew Staunton and Lee Unkrich (story)*

True Grit - Joel and Ethan Coen

Winter's Bone - Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini


Will Win: Aaron Sorkin

Might Win: N/A (it's a lock)

What I Would Like to Win: I'm actually okay with this one. As a writer Sorkin can be glib, self-righteous and oh-so-precious but this is a smart, entertaining, beautifully constructed script. By far the best thing he has ever done. I'd also be cool with Winter's Bone winning but that ain't gonna happen.

" Wait a minute. What the hell is Toy Story 3 "adapted" from? Is it a true story or something?


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Another Year - Mike Leigh

The Fighter - Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson (screenplay) Keith Dorrington, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson (story)

Inception - Christopher Nolan

The Kids Are All Right - Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg.

The King's Speech - David Seidler


Will Win: David Seidler

Might Win: Another lock

Haven't Seen: Another Year (and shame on me, Mike Leigh is almost always great)

What I Would Like to Win:  Toss up. Inception was ingeniously constructed but The King's Speech is actually pretty moving. Either would be fine.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale - The Fighter

John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner - The Town

Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech


Will Win: Christian Bale

Might Win: Geoffrey Rush (but I doubt it)

Who I'd Like to Win: John Hawkes. Like all of the cast of Winter's Bone, I never caught Hawkes "acting". Can't say that about the others.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams - The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

Melissa Leo - The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom


Will Win: Melissa Leo

Might Win: Helena Bonham Carter

Haven't Seen: Jacki Weaver

Who I'd Like to Win: Totally fine with Leo. A great actress who deserves her due.



BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem - Biutiful

Jeff Bridges - True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network

Colin Firth - The King's Speech

James Franco - 127 Hours


Will Win: Colin Firth

Might Win: ANOTHER lock

Haven't Seen: Javier Bardem

Who I'd Like to Win: Firth is fine by me.


BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening - The Kid's Are All Right

Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine


Will Win: Natalie Portman

Might Win: Annette Bening

Haven't Seen: Nicole Kidman, Michelle Williams

Who I'd Like to Win: Jennifer Lawrence. Her performance was subtle and intelligent with no opportunity for showboating. Portman and Bening are both terrific but Lawrence most resembled an actual human being. I do wish I'd seen Michelle Williams.


BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan

David O. Russell - The Fighter

Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

David Fincher -The Social Network

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - True Grit


Will Win: David Fincher

Might Win: Tom Hooper (unlikely and a travesty if it did happen)

Who I'd Like to Win: Fincher, no question. I love the Coen Brothers but it's David Fincher's year.


BEST PICTURE

I'm going to do Best Picture a bit differently. I'm going to list the nominees in what I consider their order of merit. Then I'll say why and reveal which I think will actually win.

10. 127 HOURS

9. THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

8. INCEPTION

7. TOY STORY 3

6. THE FIGHTER

5. THE KING'S SPEECH

4. BLACK SWAN

3. TRUE GRIT

2. WINTER'S BONE

1. THE SOCIAL NETWORK



It's not that I think 127 HOURS is a bad film. James Franco is excellent and Danny Boyle does a pretty good job of rendering a fairly static situation in a cinematic way through editing, camera angles, the use of the camcorder etc. However, the situation, although unquestionably dramatic, did not hold my interest for even the relatively short running time of 93 minutes. Basically, you end up just waiting for the big unpleasant scene to happen, and although that is rendered well for maximum effect it's just not enough.

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT is a good, well meaning film with terrific acting. It's also unimaginative and riddled with cliches. It's sad that in 2011 a film can still be considered progressive, even radical, just because it dares to portray an "alternative" family unit and treat it as normal. Don't get me wrong, that is a very good thing indeed, the film really has it's heart in the right place.  However, that doesn't prevent it from being, in my opinion aesthetically and dramatically dull. It feels like a well made TV movie, no more.

I've already written on this blog about INCEPTION. It's a smart entertaining movie with an ingeniously layered structure. Unfortunately I found it emotionally remote and it's portrayal of dreaming and dreamworlds to be sadly flat and literal.

TOY STORY 3 is a fine film, beautifully crafted, funny and poignant. It also feels a just a little smug in it's ability to push our collective buttons. Pixar films are always very well made, but they are rarely truly surprising or innovative.

I liked THE FIGHTER a lot, but I was not blind to it's predictability or it's conventionality.

THE KING'S SPEECH was actually a pleasant surprise. I'm on record as not being a fan of a) the royal family or d b) British Oscar bait. Turns out the film is undeniably effective, with a good literate screenplay and a fantastic cast.

BLACK SWAN is basically trash, and derivative trash at that. It's also, wonderful, passionate, go-for-broke cinema.

I loved everything about TRUE GRIT. Strong performances, quotable dialogue painterly cinematography and a familiar story that still works a treat. I'm going to cherish this movie for years to come.

WINTER'S BONE stuck with me for weeks. It felt entirely true and was so quietly powerful I just couldn't shake it off. I couldn't be more pleased to see it get multiple nominations. I hope star Jennifer Lawrence has a long, rewarding career.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK is not only flawlessly crafted but it's the nominated film that speaks most directly to who we are at this moment and time and where we are headed. For that, and for David Fincher's exquisite execution, it deserves the win.



WILL WIN: THE KING'S SPEECH

It's based (loosely I hear) on history, is about a noble (literally in this case) character overcoming an affliction, it's British (never hurts) and has a real "rooting factor", something THE SOCIAL NETWORK doesn't really have at all.
  

MIGHT WIN/SHOULD WIN: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

One last thing, as I look over the entire list of nominees I see one that would make me very happy. I would love to see the great Roger Deakins win best cinematography for his work on TRUE GRIT. One of the world's great cameramen, often nominated, but has never won. Here's hoping this is his year.

Enjoy the show